NBA playoffs betting Four bets for Monday

Minnesota pull even late for a 2-2 draw with Galaxy

The NBA comes off of back-to-back quadruple-headers over the weekend with a three-game slate on Monday. Two of the games are potential eliminations, with the top two seeds in the Western Conference both having the chance to close out their competition.

In the East, the Heat stole Game 2 against the Celtics but were blown out in both other games. Can the Heat get hot again and tie the series up? Can the Pelicans avoid the sweep? And can the Lakers live to fight another game against the defending NBA champs?

Let's dig deeper and identify some angles of interest in Monday's games.

Bam Adebayo over 19.5 points (-105). Adebayo has been consistent as a scorer against the Celtics this season, averaging 22.3 PPG in six total games (three regular season, three playoffs) with between 19 and 27 points in all six contests. The 19-point game was back in January and came in only 29 minutes of play; he has scored at least 20 points in all three playoffs games so far. Expect more of the same on Monday.

If you are feeling conservative, Adebayo over 18.5 points is available on ESPNBET at -135.

Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans (even). After a hard-fought, two-point win in Game 1 of the series, the Thunder have outclassed the Pelicans by a total of 53 points in the past two games. In the calendar year 2024, including the playoffs and the regular season, the Thunder are 5-0 against the Pelicans with an average win margin of 17.2 PPG. They've won three of those five games by at least 21 points, and two of those three blowouts were on the road in New Orleans.

I look for the Thunder to follow in the Timberwolves' footsteps and finish off a comfortable sweep on Monday.

Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 points over Denver Nuggets (-115). The Lakers staved off a second consecutive playoffs sweep at the hand of the Nuggets with a hard-fought victory in L.A. on Saturday. But unlike last season, the Lakers have actually been the better team for the vast majority of the series, reportedly leading for more than 139 minutes of game action vs the Nuggets' 42 minutes of leading. The Lakers have led at the half of all four games and have led by double-digits in every game.

Jamal Murray is a game-time decision on Monday with a left calf strain, and if he is limited or out it changes the way the Nuggets play. I'm expecting the Lakers to be competitive again, with their backs against the wall as they try to force a Game 6.

According to BPI, the Nuggets should be favored but by a 5.3-point margin that is within the spread.

LeBron James over 27.5 points (even). James is in an elimination game, which means he's going to score. According to ESPN Stats & Information, after his efforts on Saturday, James is now averaging 33.6 PPG in career playoff games when facing elimination, the highest mark in NBA history for players with a minimum of 10 such games. (Michael Jordan is second at 31.3 PPG, and Wilt Chamberlain third at 31.1 PPG.) LeBron has led or co-led his team in scoring in 26 of the 27 games when he's faced elimination, a 96% clip that is also by far the highest in NBA history. (Jordan is second at 85%.)

On Saturday, LeBron hit the Nuggets for 30 points in 39 minutes. I look for another big game on Monday night.

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET 

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat 7:30 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami

Records (Against the Spread) Celtics: 64-18 (43-35-4) Heat: 46-36 (40-40-2)

Line: Celtics (-10.5) Total: 203.5 Money Line: Celtics (-520), Heat (+395) BPI Projection: Celtics by 6.9, straight up 72%, 198.0 total points.

Injury Report: Celtics: None reported Heat: Delon Wright, (GTD - Personal); Terry Rozier, (OUT - Neck); Jimmy Butler, (OUT - Knee); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder)

Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans East 1st Round - Game 4 8:30 p.m. Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Records (Against the Spread) Thunder: 57-25 (46-35-1) Pelicans: 49-33 (43-38-1)

Line: Thunder (-5.5) Total: 206.5 Money Line: Thunder (-190), Pelicans (+160) BPI Projection: Thunder by 3.3, straight up 61%, 212.8 total points.

Injury Report: Thunder: Olivier Sarr, (OUT - Achilles) Pelicans: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, (GTD - Ankle); Zion Williamson, (OUT - Hamstring)

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets 10:00 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver

Records (Against the Spread) Lakers: 47-35 (38-44-0) Nuggets: 57-25 (38-42-2)

Line: Nuggets (-7.5) Total: 216.5 Money Line: Lakers (+235), Nuggets (-295) BPI Projection: Nuggets by 5.3, straight up 67%, 215.2 total points.

Injury Report: Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Wrist); Jarred Vanderbilt, (GTD - Foot); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Cam Reddish, (OUT - Ankle); Jalen Hood-Schifino, (OUT - Back) Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD - Calf); Reggie Jackson, (GTD - Ankle); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee); Collin Gillespie, (OUT - Knee)